Special Report

From Campuses to Labs, it's Already a 32-Bit World

By John W. Wilson in San Francisco
Business Week

December 1, 1986

Anyone who doubts that the 32-bit microprocessor will have a profound impact on the computer Establishment should see what's happening at the University of California at Berkeley. Until now, its 44,000 students and professors have been doing homework and research on 1,500 terminals hooked up to minicomputers and mainframes. But once the university finishes a two-year overhaul of its computer systems, the academics will sit down instead to 5,000 desktop computers, more than half of them powered by 32-bit microchips.

The 32-bit revolution is well under way in academia, in research labs, and in engineering centers, and its' changing the nature of work in every technical discipline. So-called engineering workstations, with unprecedented amounts of computing power, can solve complex problems faster, swap data in a flash, and generate three-dimensional images of everything from molecules to hubcaps.

STANDARD EQUIPMENT

The latest workstations from the likes of Sun Microsystems, Apollo Computer, and Silicon Graphics work as fast as a $ 350,000 Digital Equipment Corp. superminicomputer that's shared by several people. Yet the priciest Sun workstation costs only about $ 75,000. So sales are booming. Shipments will jump 65%, to $ 1.5 billion this year, says Dataquest Inc. analyst Brad Smith. By 1990, he predicts, workstations may be a $ 4.5 billion market. Already, small companies that pioneered the field are being challenged by such oldtimers as DEC, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, and Japan's NEC. Apple Computer Inc. is expected to enter the market soon.

The powerful new 32-bit generation of workstations is giving companies with big technical staffs significant cost and performance benefits. Boeing Co. hopes to develop its next-generation jetliner faster and cheaper than in the past byy relying on workstations that analyze design specifications. "There are things engineers can do on a desk today that they would have had to use a supercomputer for a year ago," says Douglas L. Frederick, manager of workstation technology for Boeing's Computer Services subsidiary. General Motors Corp. hopes its workstations will cut in half the five-year design cycle for a new car model.

As workstations become more popular, the role of microcomputers is changing, and Digital, Hewlett-Packard Co., and other traditional mini makers will need to shift gears. Increasingly, says William G. Parzybok Jr., general manager of HP's Design Systems Group, superminis are being cast in supporting roles that require higher speeds, lower cost, and specialized skills such as managing files of data. Concludes John C. Levinson, a computer industry analyst at Goldman, Sachs & Co.: "This is the beginning of the end for traditional minicomputer products."

Scientists and engineers are far ahead of office customers: "They're reaping big dividends from workstations because they've worked with their suppliers to develop communications and software standards. Lessening the proprietary nature of computers has forced down hardware prices -- and encouraged programmers to write lots of software that will work on most machines. On the commercial side, by contrast, leading manufacturers, particularly International Business Machines Corp., have so far shunned standards in order to preserve proprietary positions and keep their customers from buying competitors' gear. In technical computing, no one supplier has had that kind of clout.

Scientists and engineers also have had more experience using computers than business people. So they've built up a huge base of powerful applications software that's easily transferred from superminis to 32-bit workstations. And it's easy for technical managers to invest in the new technology because they can see clear gains in productivity. Such gains are much harder to chart in offices.

Still, the technical customers are clearing a path for offices. "We've been pushing this type of computing because engineers are more willing to try something new and seek the best tool," says Bernard J. Lacroute, executive vice-president of Sun. "As the technology evolves, we'll find commercial applications."  

GRAPHIC: Picture, WORKSTATIONS MAY RACK UP $ 4.5 BILLION IN SALES BY 1990; Graph, WORKSTATION SALES, DATA: DATAQUEST INC.

Copyright 1986 McGraw-Hill, Inc.